The 80:20 rule, also known as the Pareto Principle, broadly states that 80% of the result can be delivered by 20% of targeted effort, for example 80% of a shops sales may be accounted for by looking after their 20% best customers. It is natural (and sensible) to target effort where results are easiest to achieve and have the maximum impact; in waste management terms think of the implementation of bottle banks, paper banks (in the 1970’s and 1980’s) and when kerbside collection of recycling became ‘a thing’, garden waste collections (late nineties / early 2000’s). These are all heavy materials (so perform well in tonnage recycling targets), prolific (lots of it), clear messages (easy for residents to understand) and have readily available end markets (no sting in the tail)! So relatively low effort for high ‘reward’.

When kerbside collections became required due to English government statutory recycling targets (back in 2003 – 2006), again it was natural to focus on the lower hanging fruit, adding cans and card to the paper and glass, and then plastic bottles, the latter often driven more by householder and political pressure than a ‘performance’ choice due to its low density / high volume meaning a lesser contribution to recycling rates.

Furthermore, these recycling collections were initially often targeted at street level properties rather than flats or estates again because they can be delivered more homogenously, and it is easier for residents to participate, more bang for buck. Pots, tubs and trays, cartons and plastic film collections are, in some areas, only being implemented through legislative requirements rather than operational choice, and the same policy is driving improved collection from flats. Pots, tubs and trays, cartons and plastic film collections provide relatively small increases in recycling rates for more complex materials with relatively high recycling costs.

Its feels as though the 80:20 principle is roughly being applied here, shaped by policy pushes to get beyond the 20% effort into the more challenging areas. We have broadly (once the food waste collections are in place), cracked the systems needed for getting most of the recycling performance out of the population, but we are not achieving the highest levels demanded of policy.

These last parts require more effort again, but targeted, as there is less commonality. It is here we are considering individual housing estates, bespoke messages for certain ‘non conforming’ households, to tackle contamination or non participating streets or blocks of flats. Better data can inform where these are, and what the issues may be. An effective service will be one that can tailor both messages and services to these harder to reach properties or groups.

The ‘80%’ effort going forward on recycling will all be about education, messages, flats, estates, flats above shops, ‘niche’ materials and ‘the right thing in the right bin’… once everyone has the services available to use. This is where the industry is heading as evidenced by the CIWM behaviour change hierarchy work https://www.circularonline.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The-Behaviour-Change-Hierarchy.pdf ) and the excellent work by ReLondon on targeting Flats and FLASH ( https://ek45a9hw9ht.exactdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Recycling-in-flats-above-shops-report-June-2023.pdf ) England may be approaching 50% recycling by 2026 with mandatory food waste collection, against a target of 55% recycling in 2025. The 65% 2035 English recycling target will only be met with hard work on behaviour change, notably in urban areas, as well as wider hopes around EPR for packaging. Similar issues apply to the established recycling systems in Wales in order to reach 70% recycling.

All that presupposes however that top level recycling is the right thing to be aiming at, using the finite resource that is local government officers time and tax payers money, but much of our policy remains fixated in this area. Would it not be better, for society and the planet if we raised our gaze higher and set about, in earnest, the easier and higher impact 20% of: opportunity for repair and reuse services; lease not buy schemes; refill and; alternatives to consumption? … but that is food for another blog!

Frith Resource Management provides strategy advice and modelling for Councils on changing systems, behaviour and performance right across the waste hierarchy, see www.frithrm.com